According to the FT, China will stick by Paris Agreement commitments. And so will India. Europe of course will too (at least it will say that it is going to, even if it backslides). The exact quote was “As a responsible developing country China’s plan
determination and policy to tackle climate change is resolute”, according to a foreign ministry spokesman.
Renovamus has been saying for a while, that China would perceive geopolitical advantage in staying the course, even if Trump takes the US out. What is also becoming clearer is that India is also heading in the same direction.
The US will soon be isolated, at least in terms of a markets perspective. What will also be interesting is how this plays into the psyche of investors. How will markets respond to the US heading in a very different direction from the rest of the world, and from science, for that matter. It goes almost without saying that modern finance was developed in the US, and for many countries, mine (Australia) included, we have looked for 70 years for the US for leadership. What will happen without that beacon? My guess is confusion, ie volatility. Those who really believe that coal is the great democratising force, lifting Indians out of poverty will bid up coal/oil futures and coal/oil company prices (a bit). But, if science is to be believed, this rally will not last long. (If you have access to the FT, worth watching the video of the investment guru, for his opinion)
How long? Not very long in my view. Sweden had its warmest March day ever last week. Wonderful to be outside in a t-shirt with a glass of rose, rather than watching the snow fall. But, ominous I think for the canary in the coal mine …